CarbonCopy Q1 2026 - The carbon price, new ETS tools, and what PPCC did right
- Rebecca Hunink
- Mar 16
- 4 min read
Editorial: The Carbon Price Has Shifted. Here's What It Means.
The NZU price has been uncomfortable viewing. It started 2025 at around $60 and has spent most of the year sliding. By early 2026 it was sitting at $45. Here's what moved it.
In March 2025, the government auction failed to clear. That put a ceiling on prices for the rest of the year - buyers knew they could access units at the auction floor, so there was little pressure to pay more on the secondary market.
In November, legislation 'decoupled' the ETS from New Zealand's NDC (International commitment under the Paris agreement). The market read that as a weakening of the government's commitment to keeping the scheme effective, and prices fell sharply - despite repeated assurances from the government to the contrary (in our view history will characterise the market sell-off as an overreaction to the news).
Early January brought another wave of supply, as forest owners whose mandatory emissions return periods had ended received several years' worth of units at once - and some needed to sell quickly into an already oversupplied market.
The underlying picture, as Nick described it in the recent CarbonCurious, is a large stockpile of privately held units. Demand runs at roughly 40 million tonnes a year against supply of around 27 million - with the gap broadly filled from that stockpile, which sat at around 135 million tonnes at the end of 2025. These are indicative figures rather than precise forecasts, and the actual path will depend on policy settings, auction outcomes, and how quickly that stockpile is drawn down.
So where does that leave you? Nobody can say for certain. Some analysis points to a structural shortfall in units over the next five years that could push prices toward $90. Others see potential oversupply in the late 2030s dragging prices back to around $50. Both could be true at different points in time - nobody has a crystal ball.
What Nick put simply in the session: at $45, carbon income is still meaningful. The question of how it fits into your decision-making is yours to answer - but understanding where the price has come from, and what the range of outcomes looks like, puts you in a better position to make that call.
Platform Updates
Register under the new ETS restrictions - right now
When MPI updated its ETS registration requirements in November 2025, every new submission suddenly needed LUC information embedded in the shapefile. The platform temporarily could not generate complete applications - but as of December 2025, it handles this automatically. You can now submit a complete, MPI-compliant application without manually sourcing LUC data or working around incomplete shapefiles. CarbonCrop guides you through selecting the right exemption pathway, generates compliant shapefiles, and automatically determines the report category for each polygon based on species and establishment date.
Also recently shipped: AI for Pre-1990 forest detection (November 2025)
A new AI model - we have nicknamed it Nirvana - analyses historical greyscale imagery to help identify whether forest was present on your land in 1990. This matters because pre-1990 forest is ineligible for ETS registration, and determining status from old aerial photos is notoriously difficult to call with confidence. Available by default for new sites under 1,000 hectares. [read]
See all recent platform updates: carboncrop.com/blog/platform-updates
Case Study: Exceeding MPI Milestones with PPCC
The Puketoi to the Pacific Catchment Collective (PPCC) needed to sign up a set number of landholders as formal members to meet its MPI funding obligations. Membership was free and interest was genuine - but interest does not fill in forms. PPCC needed something concrete to offer.
They used the CarbonCrop platform to offer free forest carbon assessments exclusively to members. Farmers received simple maps of their likely ETS-eligible native forest areas, backed by historical imagery and carbon revenue estimates, in exchange for joining. PPCC exceeded its MPI membership milestone ahead of schedule.
It is a model worth copying: offer members something genuinely useful - not generic advice - and the sign-ups follow. Read the full case study.
Things You Might Have Missed
From CarbonCrop
CarbonCurious March 2026 - The NZU Price: What's Happening and What to Do About It. Nick Butcher walks through what's driven the price slide, what the forecasts say, and how to think about carbon income when the market is moving.
How catchment coordinators and council land managers are getting more trees in the ground, faster. What joined-up working between catchment groups and regional councils looks like in practice - and why a shared map changes the conversation.
New ETS exotic forest restrictions now in effect. The October 31 cut-off has passed - our guide to what changed, what the exemption pathways look like, and how to think through your options.
NZARM webinar recording now available. Nick Butcher walks through the decision framework, the exemption pathways, and some of the less obvious ways things can go wrong.
External
Every Hectare Matters - ASB programme. ASB's programme for farmers looking to get more from their land - worth a look if you are thinking through how different parts of your property are earning their keep.
MPI ETS guidance. MPI's official guidance on the new exotic forest LUC restrictions, including the permit ballot framework and exemption criteria.
Important Dates
3 March 2026 - First ETS auction of 2026. etsauctions.govt.nz
End of June 2026 - Final Emissions Return (FER) deadline for all ETS participants.
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