CarbonCopy

Rebecca Hunink
Dec 1, 2025
6 min read

Updated: 1 day ago

The CarbonCrop Newsletter | Q4 2025

This issue:

Editorial
Carbon Market / emsTP update
ETS processing times
Recent announcements
Important dates
Catchment group case study
What’s new on the platform
Things you might have missed

EDITORIAL: ETS Changes Are Coming - and We’re Building a Free Tool to Help

The government’s proposed rule changes on whole farm conversions to exotic forestry came into effect on 31st October 2025. The new category of “restricted forest land” applies to much of LUC 1-6 land, limiting ETS registration of exotic forest in the future unless you qualify for an exemption.

There are a few exemptions - each with their own criteria and rules. If you plant expecting to register in the ETS and don’t check your land’s status first, you could be left with a forest that cannot be registered.

One of the more significant exemptions is baked into the timelines. Any forest established prior to 31 October 2025 will not be considered restricted, but having clear evidence of planted status before that date is key. If you’ve just planted this season, collect photos now (our Fieldscan app is a great option) and keep your receipts!

For new planting after the rule change, the 25% allowance will be a central planning tool. This lets you register up to a quarter of your LUC 1-6 land as restricted forest, provided it sits within an “individual farm” - meaning land in adjacent titles, under the same ownership, and actively farmed. An individual farm isn’t defined or fixed until you use it to support a 25% exemption for an ETS application. From the point you use it, it cannot be changed or transferred to a new owner, nor can the associated titles ever have another 25% exemption in the future - it becomes very much ‘use it or lose it’.

This becomes a critical planning consideration, and landowners who don’t make appropriate allowances risk a significant loss of value.

There are also:

Multiple other criteria which may result in LUC 1-6 land not being considered ‘restricted’
Options to adjust your LUC classification with a property scale mapping
A ‘ballot’ for exemption permits for registration on LUC6 land
A transitional exemption for certain ongoing investments

We cover what is and is not known about the incoming restrictions and their implications for land use decisions in this webinar. Please note that new information recently released may not be reflected. We will be providing further updates in the coming weeks.

Because the rules are complex, we’re building a free report and adding a range of features to the platform to help farmers quickly understand their high-level restrictions and allowances around the ballot and 25% allowance, see how they apply to their land, and plan for the long term.

The first phase of this is a free ETS LUC restrictions report.

With this, you will understand your restricted and unrestricted land, as well as the area your 25% allowance covers, based on the national LUC data layer. A similar report for property-level LUC (ie from your farm plans) will follow, so you can compare and decide which option is more suitable for your planting plans.

If you are a CarbonCrop customer, this report will be available to you in the platform soon.

Otherwise, find your farm and request the free report here.

Carbon Market Commentary

emsTradepoint

Carbon Market Overview:

The carbon market has shown strong resilience over the last 3 months, maintaining a stable trading range between $55.50 - $58.00, but has fallen back towards $52 in the last week.

This stability largely stems from the government’s decision to adhere to the planned auction schedule and reject the Climate Change Commission’s recommendation to redistribute unsold auction volumes - a move welcomed by market participants as it removed potential market overhang and restored confidence. Notably, this government action highlights a balanced approach of avoiding unnecessary interference while making necessary changes to ensure market stability and improvement.

NZU Auctions:

The three completed NZU auctions for 2025 have all failed to attract a single bid. Taken in context, the auction floor price is $68, so it's no surprise that the auctions have failed to clear.

The final auction for 2025 is on Dec. 3rd. The same $68 floor price applies, so there is no chance of that clearing with a current trading price of ~$53.

The positive spin on the failed auctions is that the 6 million units that were available will be cancelled at the end of 2025. This will help reduce the current surplus, which continues to overhang the market. The surplus has been steadily reducing; the EPA releases the ‘Privately held units’ at the end of each quarter and the NZUs held as of 30th June 2025 showed a 8.22 million reduction from the previous quarter.

International Carbon Markets:

EU carbon prices have had a very strong rally since April 2025; they were trading at just over 60 Euro and have recently hit 80 Euro.

Australian units (ACCU’s) at $38.25 AUD ($43.00 NZD).

ETS Registration Processing Times

The chances of getting registered by the end of the year if you haven’t submitted your application yet are extremely low. As of 21 October 2025, MPI reports a backlog of 257 applications in processing. The oldest application in the queue was submitted on 15 July 2025. As of 21 October 2025, there were 56 working days remaining in 2025, with a median processing time above 50 days for all types of registering land applications.

See current processing times here.

Recent Announcements

Legislation Passed to Restrict Farm-to-Forest Conversions

On 31 October 2025, the Climate Change Response (ETS - Forestry Conversions) Amendment Bill took effect. The bill restricts what land can be registered, based on its Land Use Capability (LUC). Land classified as high-to-medium versatility (LUC 1-6) will be considered “restricted land” and forest on this land can only be registered in the ETS through specific allowances and exemptions. Low-versatility land (LUC 7-8) has no new restrictions on registering exotic forests in the ETS.

Understand the legislation and new pathways here - note that new information recently released may not be reflected. We will be providing further updates in the coming weeks.

Methane pricing off the table

The Government has:

Taken the pricing of agricultural emissions off the table
Revised NZ’s methane targets to a 14 to 24 percent reduction by 2050 from 2017 levels (previously a 24 to 47 percent range) with a review of progress to targets scheduled for 2040
Committed to investigating amending NZ’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC – the target reported on internationally under the Paris Agreement on climate change) to take a split-gas approach.

19 August 2025 – Cabinet Decision on 2026–2030 ETS Settings

The Government finalised decisions on unit limits and price control settings for the 2026–2030 period, following public consultation and advice from the Climate Change Commission.

Important Dates

3 December 2025 – NZ ETS Auction #4

The final auction for the year will be held, with specific details to be announced in advance.

31 December 2025 – End of Mandatory Emissions Return Period

The current mandatory emissions return period (2023–2025) concludes. Forestry participants will need to prepare and submit emissions returns covering this period in early 2026. Learn more.

Auction dates for 2026

Auction Name	Date	Volume of NZUs Available
December 2025	03/12/2025	1,300,000
March 2026	03/03/2026	1,300,000
June 2026	09/06/2026	1,300,000
September 2026	08/09/2026	1,300,000

Mini-case study: From Forest to Funding. Helping Landholders See ETS Potential

The Challenge: identifying ETS-eligible forest farmers weren’t aware of.

How the platform was used: PPCC assessed and flagged farms with likely ETS potential, then spoke to farmers directly.

Outcome: average of ~$55,000 per year identified per farmer

“When farmers can clearly see the value, they’re ready to move. CarbonCrop made it easy to get started.” — June, PPCC Administrator

What’s New - easier and faster to plan planting

This month was full of visual tools to put the AI land cover data at your fingertips (and your eyes), and practical tools to make planning easier.

Default Polygon Colours

We’ve made it visually easier to assess forest.

When the AI has finished mapping a site, it knows a lot about existing land cover vegetation. Even though this information was there, you couldn’t easily access it. Now you can.

Signposting the AI-assessed type of land cover (native, exotic, scrub) with colour makes it easier to focus on the most important areas. But we’ve kept the charcoal polygon fill which means you can still visually see your ‘to do’ list in the map.

And a whole bunch more.

Stay up to date with platform updates here.